Cookie Study: Impact of Paid & Natural Search Result Clicks (along with Direct URL Entry) on Affiliate Traffic

I've been studying the impact of paid and natural search clicks (and direct URL entry) on affiliate cookies and created 6 models where a visitor lands on a merchant's site via an affiliate-based click but doesn’t convert. 

In each case, the visitor immediately returns to Google and re-enters the merchant's site as a result of different paid/natural/direct URL entry clicks.

One question I haven't been able to answer is what impact (if any) does CJ's 5-yr cookie have?


The Models

(All models originate with an affiliate-based click into a CJ merchant’s site)


Conclusion

In 4 out of the 6 cases (A, B, E, F) the affiliate’s cookie was overwritten by either another affiliate, or the merchant itself and resulted in a lost commission for the original affiliate.




Data (using Cookie Editor software )
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Original Affiliate Click
(PID 253D1427021)

  

CJ cookie duration = 5 Years

 
 

Question: What impact does CJ's 5-year cookie have?
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CASE A: Paid Search click (Merchant listing)



Result : Cookie overwritten by merchant.  Affiliate does not get commission
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CASE B : Paid Search click (new affiliate listing)



Result : Cookie overwritten by new affiliate.  PID 253D719008 gets commission
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CASE C : Natural Search click (merchant listing)



Result : Cookie not overwritten. Original affiliate gets commission
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CASE D : Natural Search click (same merchant, different landing URL)



Result : Cookie not overwritten.  Original affiliate gets commission
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CASE E: Natural Search click (new affiliate listing)



Result : Cookie overwritten by new affiliate.  PID 253D1161560 gets commission
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CASE F: Merchant's URL typed directly into browser



Result : Cookie not overwritten.  Original affiliate gets commission
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Assumptions