Cookie Study: Impact of Paid & Natural Search Result Clicks (along with Direct URL Entry) on Affiliate Traffic

I've been studying the impact of paid and natural search clicks (and direct URL entry) on affiliate cookies and created 6 models where a visitor lands on a merchant's site via an affiliate-based click but doesn’t convert. 

In each case, the visitor immediately returns to Google and re-enters the merchant's site as a result of different paid/natural/direct URL entry clicks.

One question I haven't been able to answer is what impact (if any) does CJ's 5-yr cookie have?

The Models

• The effect of paid search clicks on affiliate traffic
  • Click on merchant listing (Case A)
  • Click on new affiliate listing (Case B)
    
• The effect of natural search clicks on affiliate traffic
  • Click on a merchant listing (Case C)
  • Click on same merchant, but different domain listing (Case D)
  • Click on a new affiliate listing (Case E)
  • Direct entry of merchant URL into browser (Case F)

(All models originate with an affiliate-based click into a CJ merchant’s site)

Conclusion

In 4 out of the 6 cases (A, B, E, F) the affiliate’s cookie was overwritten by either another affiliate, or the merchant itself and resulted in a lost commission for the original affiliate.

Data (using Cookie Editor software )
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Original Affiliate Click (PID 253D1427021)

  

CJ cookie duration = 5 Years

   

Question: What impact does CJ's 5-year cookie have?
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CASE A: Paid Search click (Merchant listing)



Result : Cookie overwritten by merchant.  Affiliate does not get commission
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CASE B : Paid Search click (new affiliate listing)



Result : Cookie overwritten by new affiliate.  PID 253D719008 gets commission
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CASE C : Natural Search click (merchant listing)



Result : Cookie not overwritten. Original affiliate gets commission
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CASE D : Natural Search click (same merchant, different landing URL)



Result : Cookie not overwritten.  Original affiliate gets commission
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CASE E: Natural Search click (new affiliate listing)



Result : Cookie overwritten by new affiliate.  PID 253D1161560 gets commission
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CASE F: Merchant's URL typed directly into browser



Result : Cookie not overwritten.  Original affiliate gets commission
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Assumptions

• A majority of affiliate traffic is generated as a result of Search activities
  
• Just as there are visitors who convert to a lead/sale on first visit to a merchant's site, there are visitors that doesn't convert on the 1st visit (these visitors may convert later or not at all)
  
• It's unknown whether the results generated from Google testing carries over equally to other Search Engines
  
• While Kowabunga gives the merchant the ability to choose whether a 1st or last clicked affiliate gets the sale/lead commission, Commission Junction always gives the commission to the last clicked affiliate link.